In December 2015, the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) announced that cases of the Zika virus had been confirmed in Puerto Rico. In February 2016, President Obama requested nearly two billion dollars in emergency funding to fight the virus found in Puerto Rico and the U.S. And in June, Jamaica’s chief medical officer called for the country’s women to delay pregnancy plans.

Transmitted by an Aedes mosquito bite, the Zika virus was first identified in 1947 in Uganda. Outbreaks have occurred in Africa, North and South America, and Asia since the middle of the 20th century, but most were small and contained. In 2007, the first widespread transmission of the disease occurred in the Federated States of Micronesia. However, what really set off alarm bells in the past two years is the connection Brazilian authorities have discovered between the virus and microcephaly, a birth defect characterized by an abnormally small head.

Seventy countries have had cases of Zika, according to a recent report from the World Health Organization (WHO). Caribbean countries, namely, are susceptible to outbreaks, which can lead to a major economic impact since they rely heavily on tourism. In WHO’s most recent report, the Bahamas have confirmed mosquito-borne infections for the first time. And Honduras and Suriname have reported Zika-related microcephaly and other malformations that may be associated with the disease.

While Brazil’s battle with Zika was discussed quite a bit during the Rio Olympics, the virus, or more specifically, the fears surrounding it, have certainly had an effect on Caribbean tourism. The question is how much. Depending on who you ask and which country they represent, answers can vary.

With the recent news headlines, it’s easy to feel nervous about contracting the disease while traveling. Yet the vast majority of people who get Zika — about 80 percent — never know they have it. The other 20 percent have minor symptoms such as a low-grade fever, soreness, and red eyes. Pregnant women have the biggest reason to be concerned, since a small fraction of the cases (mostly in Brazil) have resulted in birth defects. (Some researchers aren’t convinced that the relationship between Zika and microcephaly has been firmly established.)

But that hasn’t stopped people from panicking. Beverly Nicholson-Doty, commissioner of tourism for the U.S. Virgin Islands, said that after the initial Caribbean outbreaks were announced in early 2016, cancellations accounted for $250,000 in lost revenue. The concern then tapered off and tourists returned. Around the same time, several airlines, including United, allowed passengers who had booked flights to countries on the CDC’s watch list to make changes without a fee. Many carriers still offer this as long as the reservations were made before February 2016. Royal Caribbean, one of the few cruise lines that stops in Haiti, has also offered to change the itinerary for any concerned pregnant passenger.

“Zika is the new Ebola or West Nile in that people are terrified when the disease first appears and then become complacent with time,” says professor Ian Crandall of the University of Toronto. A travel and tropical medicine specialist at Toronto’s pharmacy school, Crandall explains that a few basic precautions and some quick fact-checking to reduce exposure to mosquitoes makes it easy to stay healthy while traveling.

In the past five years, the Caribbean tourism business has been rebounding a bit faster than the global average. For the first two months of 2016, the Caribbean Tourism Organization (CTO) reported a seven percent increase in visitors over the same period of 2015, which is better than the global increase of five percent.

And since the WHO declared Zika a public health emergency, most Caribbean destinations have shown an increase in travelers, according to the CTO. St. Maarten and Belize were up from the same time the previous year. Trinidad and Tobago, however, was down. There are also reasons for travel changes that may have nothing to do with Zika. Cuba, which recently re-established ties with the U.S., has seen an influx of visitors from the north, and tourism is up more than 15 percent. Haiti has suffered as a result of protests related to recent elections and is down 14.5 percent, according to CTO.

While it’s possible to track the number of trip cancellations and overall visits, it’s tougher to find the number of tourists who considered a Caribbean trip and changed their mind as a result of Zika. A new survey from deal site Scott’s Cheap Flights asked a pool of 9,711 users: how has the Zika virus outbreak affected your travel plans to Latin America or the Caribbean? Approximately two-and-a-half percent said they cancelled a trip as a result of Zika and another 30 percent were considering visiting, but decided to travel elsewhere. Other participants would either travel and take extra precautions or go as planned. “If tourism decreases 30 percent in these locations, that could have a huge impact on their economies,” said Brian Kidwell, who worked on the Scott’s Cheap Flights survey.

Atlanta travel agent Lindsey Epperly says the honeymooners and young married couples she works with are opting for Hawaii, Tahiti, and other southeast Asian vacation spots over the Caribbean. “For many travelers from the East Coast, this means spending a little longer on a flight in order to get somewhere tropical without the Zika concern,” she explains. “Travelers aren’t too distraught about this, though — it gives them an opportunity to mark off a new bucket list destination.”

While most Caribbean countries haven’t had a major dip in visits, some parts have. Puerto Rico tourism is notably down. Average hotel occupancy rate has decreased from 71.8 percent in 2015 to 64.9 percent in 2016, according to the Puerto Rico Tourism Company (PRTC). Ingrid I. Rivera Rocafort, executive director of the PRTC, said most of the declines occurred in February, after the CDC’s announcements about Zika.

According to the CDC, 9,011 cases of Zika have been reported in the U.S. territories, including Puerto Rico, through August 24. Sixteen cases were reported in Jamaica through June 1, 2016. Early 2016 cruise arrivals to Puerto Rico, Barbados, and Saint Lucia were all down in the double digits, according to the Caribbean Tourism Organization.

Want to travel to the Caribbean and stay safe? “Zika is spread by Aedes mosquitoes,” explains professor Crandall. “They are day biting urban mosquitoes with a peak of activity around dawn and dusk.” To ward off bites, he recommends an insect repellent with DEET. “If you’re staying in an air-conditioned resort, your chances of exposure are low,” he adds. “Also, wearing clothing that covers your arms and legs helps.”

In order to comfort tourists, hotels are putting insect repellant with DEET in hotel rooms as well as installing screens with mosquito netting, according to the CTO. Several Caribbean countries have also released pictures of exterminators carrying devices that look like flame throwers and can kill mosquitoes in their breeding grounds. But those images don’t appear to assuage everyone’s concerns.

One reason for the Zika-related hysteria, says Crandall, is that the actual data regarding the disease is “very thin” and the numerous recommendations aren’t backed with a lot of research. “I would avoid some areas if I was pregnant, or considering becoming a parent within the next year,” he says. “There are reports that Zika can be spread sexually for a period after exposure. However, most people are at low risk. And if you know how the Aedes mosquitoes operate, you can easily minimize the risk.”

Related Articles:

6 Things You Have to Know About the Zika Virus, and How it Affects TravelI Got Zika While Traveling — Here’s What No One Told Me10 Beach Destinations Where You Don’t Really Have to Worry About the Zika Virus

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